this post was submitted on 17 Aug 2025
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He says if Trump continues deporting immigrants at the current rate, inflation will go from 2.5% to somewhere close to 4% “by the time it hits its peak early next year.”

Zandi says his stark prediction is based on recent inflation data. “Foreign-born labor force is declining, and the overall labor force has gone flat since the beginning of the year,” he added. “That’s causing tightening in a lot of markets, adding to costs and inflation.”

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[–] Juice@midwest.social 4 points 4 hours ago* (last edited 4 hours ago)

It's so funny, because it means it will raise wages. I will never understand why these people wont just be honest. Economists will go to whatever lengths necessary to avoid making a class analysis.

increased wages leads to inflation, according to the rules of capitalist profit accumulation. Its what happened during covid, when so many people died the "surplus population" that keeps wage growth stagnant was depleted by a meaningful degree. Wages went up, then inflation followed. And we saw that most of that inflation was just companies raising prices so they could make more money.

Obviously the mass deportation of workers is an act of class war, and should be fought against. But it will increase profits for his buddies in the short term, and buy him some political clout among his base in the shorter term. The problem is, who will do those agri jobs which rely on hyper exploited labor, and why? It is going to cause mayhem for masses of workers.

But also, that is the point. He wants to crash our economy on purpose. The endgame is to force an asset bubble onto China and the EU, through a long painful global recession.

So the problem isn't Trump, he is a symptom, an accelerant. As always, the problem is capitalism which dominates every part of our lives.

Look up "reserve army of labor", called "surplus population" by mainstream economists, and the stupidly named "Mara-Lago accords."

[–] HeyThisIsntTheYMCA@lemmy.world 3 points 5 hours ago

not 4% annually, 4% per month.

[–] DrDickHandler@lemmy.world 2 points 5 hours ago

So unless they remove Powell, Trump isn't getting his rate cut.

[–] Kazumara@discuss.tchncs.de 1 points 5 hours ago

It's going to be difficult to decide how much inflation comes from which bad policy, because there are multiple.

  • Deportations (less production due to workforce reduction)
  • Import taxes on finished goods (less market supply locally)
  • Import taxes on industry inputs (less production locally)
  • Forcing inefficient foreign investment (monetary oversupply for impacted sectors)
[–] Bronzebeard@lemmy.zip 14 points 10 hours ago

We're already going to hit that when the companies run out of domestic stock, and the tariff increases hit - this is just starting now.

[–] Diplomjodler3@lemmy.world 10 points 11 hours ago* (last edited 9 hours ago) (1 children)

You can't have inflation, if you stop collecting inflation data. *taps forehead *

[–] tylerkdurdan@lemmy.world 3 points 7 hours ago* (last edited 7 hours ago)

worked out well for Argentina and Greece... /s

[–] ChickenLadyLovesLife@lemmy.world 6 points 11 hours ago (1 children)

Where I live (Philly suburbs) you always used to see people playing organized soccer on all the local fields early Sunday mornings yelling in Spanish. Now those fields are always empty.

[–] DrSoap@lemmy.world 7 points 10 hours ago

I passdd through Times Square yesterday. Weekend during summer. Usually packed with teens families and tourists. It was nearing pandemic levels of empty.

[–] aramis87@fedia.io 91 points 21 hours ago (2 children)

[x] to doubt. Mostly because I sincerely doubt inflation will "peak" at 4%.

[–] Furbag@lemmy.world 3 points 7 hours ago

Inflation numbers are already higher than expected. Can't imagine that it's going to be a rosy outlook for inflation over the next few years, or at the very least I wouldn't count on the numbers going down any time soon. Trump won't get his interest rate cut like he wanted so I fully anticipate he will continue to play tariff chicken with the rest of the world and by the time the fucker leaves office the economy will be in a goddamn ruin and the right will get to blame whoever swoops in to clean up the mess again.

[–] meco03211@lemmy.world 14 points 18 hours ago

No no. You misunderstood. They're going to peek at it at 4% then promptly ignore it going higher.

[–] peoplebeproblems@midwest.social 37 points 18 hours ago (1 children)

4%? Based on some of the food prices I've seen it's easily 60% over the past 365 days.

Oh right, the magic "you can't count food alone" or energy, or housing, or anything that really matters.

[–] LifeInMultipleChoice@lemmy.world 9 points 16 hours ago

My spouse told me a store was having a "sale" on 2 liters of soda, for $4.29. That has to be higher than I've ever heard. I don't by Coke often but if I was buying a 2 liter $1.99 was expensive a couple years ago. Products like that have to be at 30%+ inflation.

[–] perviouslyiner@lemmy.world 67 points 21 hours ago (1 children)

oh no, small farms will go bankrupt and have to sell to larger farms that Trump's friends own... Oops, what an accidental bribe!

[–] Clent@lemmy.dbzer0.com 14 points 18 hours ago

Trump's "friends" -- His only known document friend hung himself in prison, allegedly.

[–] MedicPigBabySaver@lemmy.world 25 points 18 hours ago

Release the Trump/Epstein files

[–] panda_abyss@lemmy.ca 17 points 20 hours ago

I’m sure he’ll pull out that sharpie, especially since that’s when J Pow can be legally fired.

[–] mikenurre@lemmy.world 11 points 20 hours ago (1 children)

Who wants to bet? I've got $100 says it goes above 4% by 6/30/26. Of course that $100 will only be worth about $94.

[–] peoplebeproblems@midwest.social 15 points 18 hours ago (1 children)

I wouldn't bet against economists.

They'll change the calculation and not allow you to change your wager.

[–] HeyThisIsntTheYMCA@lemmy.world 2 points 5 hours ago

i'm an economist (not a good one) and I'm betting fortune's economist is way undershooting

[–] DirkMcCallahan@lemmy.world 8 points 20 hours ago

That's all?

[–] psycho_driver@lemmy.world 5 points 21 hours ago