Timing is a fools game for sure. Bubble could pop next month, next year, or even later.
If you're old, make sure you have a good percent in bonds. If you're young, make sure you have 6-12 months saved in case of layoffs and keep saving - market will look completely different in 20-30 years anyways so it's not worth worrying about.
The other option is that the supreme court undoes a prior decision, like they did to roe v. wade. Texas v. Johnson was only a 5-4 decision (To be clear, I think this would be awful as well, but it is likely how the admin plans to enforce this, assuming they have a plan).
No, what you say makes sense, and I think it's part of the reason why linux usage (as a daily driver) is starting to increase now versus 20 years ago. It's just easier to install and use linux distros nowadays.
And most folks who want office for free are going to go with google docs, for the convenience factor.
The assumption that you'll lose a lawsuit against a large corporation probably stops a lot of viable lawsuits from ever happening - good for him for giving it a go.
That is the tricky thing about basing predictions on historic trends. IIRC, is was Arab spring in some countries that broke the rule (and that "rule" was calculated based on data from 1900-2006). I'm also curious how Nepal and Madagascar stack up compared to historic trends.
Other aspects of Chenoweths research (such as the importance of "converting" certain factions such as police or military - or at least getting them to be neutral) are important as well but don't get as much traction as the clickbaity 3.5% number does
ETA: Nepal's discord had about 100k members, and it's population is 29 million. So that was well below 3.5%. Like No Kings, Nepals protests were decentralized, which is potentially a factor compared to historic protests which tend to be focused on a single location or march