Hard Pass

AI is, as it stands, not economically viable for anybody involved other than the construction firms, NVIDIA, and the surrounding hardware companies benefitting from the irrational exuberance of a data center buildout that doesn’t appear to be happening at the speed we believed.

Every AI startup loses millions or billions of dollars a year, and nobody appears to have worked out a way to stop hemorrhaging cash. Hyperscalers have invested over $800 billion in the last three years, with plans to add another $700 billion or so in 2026 and another $1 trillion in 2027, meaning that they need to make at least three trillion dollars in AI specific revenue just to break even, and $6 trillion or more for AI to be anything other than a wash. I went into detail about this (albeit at a lower, pre-2026/2027 capex number) in a premium piece last year.

To give you some context, Microsoft made $281 billion, Meta $200 billion, Amazon $716 billion, and Google $402.8 billion in revenue in their most-recent fiscal years for every single product combined, for a total of $1.599 trillion. None of them will talk about their actual AI revenues. Yes, yes, I know Microsoft said that it had $37 billion in AI revenue run rate ($3.08 billion a month or so) and Amazon had $15 billion, or around $1.25 billion a month, but both of these are snapshots of single months that are meant to make it sound like they’re going to make that much in a year but in the end, you don’t actually know anything about how much money they’ve made from AI.

cross-posted from: https://sh.itjust.works/post/60438826

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz has signed the nation's first law banning prediction market sites from operating in the state, the most far-reaching crackdown on massively popular services like Kalshi and Polymarket.

It comes as states confront a growing standoff with the Trump administration over how to regulate the industry, which allows people to bet on virtually anything.

The new state law makes it a crime to host or advertise a prediction market, which it defines as a system that lets consumers place a wager on a future outcome, like sports, elections, weather, live entertainment, someone's word choice and world affairs.

The prohibition extends to services supporting prediction markets, like virtual private networks, that could allow consumers to disguise their location and get around the ban.

It would force prediction market sites like Kalshi and Polymarket to leave the state, or face possible felony charges. The law takes effect in August.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the GOP primary for U.S. Senate, supercharging his effort to oust incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in next week’s runoff.

“Ken is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas, and will continue to do so in the United States Senate,” Trump wrote on social media.

News of the endorsement broke during a Paxton campaign event, drawing cheers from supporters who began dancing to “YMCA,” a Trump campaign anthem.

“I have so much respect for the president and appreciate so much his endorsement,” Paxton said at the event in Allen, Texas.

Paxton and Cornyn advanced to a May 26 runoff after finishing as the top vote getters in a March 3 primary where no candidate won a majority. Rep. Wesley Hunt finished third and did not advance.

Although the four-term Cornyn has backed Trump’s agenda in Washington, Paxton pitched himself as a political warrior for the Make America Great Again movement. Trump’s endorsement puts him at odds with his party’s establishment, which is convinced that Cornyn is the better candidate for November’s general election. The Democrats nominated Texas State Rep. James Talarico as their candidate for Senate.

In response to Trump’s endorsement, Talarico said in a statement that “it doesn’t matter who wins this runoff. We already know who we’re running against: the billionaire mega-donors and their corrupt political system.”

Cornyn’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment. On Monday, the senator said he believed that Trump had decided not to weigh in with an endorsement.

https://archive.ph/MDHhn

https://xcancel.com/travessao_arte/status/1423376712839073792

John M. | Red Phoenix correspondent | Colorado–

Lurking in the deepest bowels of Colorado, a coalition calling itself Protect Kids Colorado has mobilized to push three ballot initiatives onto the Nov. 2026 ballot, each draped in the rhetoric of child protection but rooted in the reactionary impulses of the ruling class. This campaign exemplifies a deeper contradiction within capitalist society: the selective outrage of Christian nationalist factions who proclaim to safeguard “girls in sports” from transgender participation, framing it as a defense of biological purity and fairness. Yet, this same moral fervor evaporates when confronting the systemic exploitation embedded in the capitalist order.

Led by anti-LGBTQ+ “activist” Erin Lee, the group submitted over 165,000 signatures for Initiative 110, which seeks to ban surgeries on minors aimed at altering biological sex characteristics, and to prohibit public funding for gender-affirming care. More than 170,000 signatures backed Initiative 109, mandating that schools and athletic associations define sports teams by physical anatomy at birth, effectively barring transgender girls from competing in girls’ sports. A similar number supported Initiative 108, which would ramp up penalties for human trafficking of minors.

These measures, if passed, would not only restrict transgender youth from essential healthcare and fair participation but would also enforce rigid, state-sanctioned definitions of gender that serve to police bodies in service to outdated hierarchies.

Similar initiatives are proliferating across the U.S., with over 700 anti-trans bills tracked in 41 states for 2026, including bans on sports participation, healthcare, and bathroom access, highlighting a coordinated assault by bourgeois interests to divide the working class. In Missouri, ballot measures seek to enshrine bans on gender-affirming care for minors alongside abortion restrictions, using trans youth as pawns to simultaneously undermine reproductive freedoms.

Efforts in Washington, Maine, and Nevada also aim to put trans sports bans directly to voters, reflecting the ruling class’ strategy to legitimize discrimination through electoral theater, to the symphony of inflammatory, unscientific, and sensationalist disinformation campaigns via the media.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), a leading Christian Nationalist, stands with her fans from Moms for Liberty-Wisconsin in front of the Capitol. (Moms For Liberty-Wisconsin)

These groups, often aligned with MAGA ideology, rally against transgender girls as existential threats while turning a blind eye—or worse, offering defenses—for capitalist pedophiles whose crimes are shielded by wealth and power. Consider the parade of high-profile figures in bourgeois circles, from financiers like Jeffrey Epstein to political elites entangled in abuse scandals, where accusations of child exploitation are dismissed as “fake news” or reframed as consensual indiscretions. The ruling class’ apparatus, including media conglomerates and legal systems, routinely minimizes these atrocities, allowing predators to evade accountability through settlements, NDAs, and influence peddling.

Capitalism thrives on the commodification of bodies, particularly those of the vulnerable, turning human trafficking and exploitation into profitable industries that bolster the accumulation of capital for the few. The hypocrisy is stark: Republicans accused of shielding pedophiles in the Epstein case, with Democrats charging that GOP refusal to release files protects the elite, while MAGA figures like Trump have been linked to Epstein yet face no reckoning from their base. Right-wing conspiracies like QAnon obsess over fictional pedophile rings among liberals, diverting attention from real abuses by their own, such as Capitol rioters convicted of child abuse who heckled police for “protecting pedophiles.”

Christian nationalists, who denounce transgender rights as anti-biblical, conveniently ignore their own defenses of abusers, exposing the selective application of “morality” to maintain patriarchal control. The hypocrisy intensifies when examining the so-called “pro-life” stance of these reactionaries.

While they decry abortion as murder and push for draconian bans that strip women and girls of bodily autonomy, their policies accelerate the immiseration of the working class. MAGA forces, under the banner of family values, have systematically dismantled reproductive rights, gutted social safety nets, and opposed measures like paid family leave or affordable childcare, ensuring that forced births trap women in cycles of poverty and dependence.

This isn’t about life, it’s about control. In a system where labor power is extracted for profit, women’s rights are subordinated to the needs of capital reproduction. The bourgeois state enforces this through legislation that prioritizes fetal personhood over living workers, all while corporate overlords reap the benefits of a desperate, underpaid workforce. The proclaimed sanctity of life clashes with the reality of capitalist death—through wars, environmental devastation, and healthcare denial—that claims millions annually.

The post-Roe era has deepened inequities, with abortion bans costing the U.S. economy $173 billion annually, lowering women’s earnings, education, and health outcomes, particularly for Black women and the poor, while increasing poverty and single parenthood. Overruling Roe has not been “pro-life” but a continuation of government control over women’s bodies, eroding their autonomy and futures. Pro-life rhetoric, including claims of “feminism,” masks this assault, portraying restrictions as protective while dishonoring women’s dignity and rights.

Compounding this is the complicity of the Democratic Party, which postures as a progressive counterweight but capitulates at every turn. Facing an electorate manipulated by misinformation and economic anxiety, Democrats have increasingly thrown the transgender community under the bus, offering tepid defenses or outright concessions to gain votes from a misinformed public. Rather than mounting a robust pushback against these anti-trans measures, they prioritize electoral pragmatism, echoing centrist appeals that dilute class struggle into identity politics.

This betrayal stems from their role as the liberal wing of the bourgeoisie, managing capitalism’s crises without challenging its foundations. By allowing reactionary narratives to dominate, framing transgender rights as a wedge issue, they divert attention from the real antagonists: the exploiters who profit from division. The working masses, fragmented along lines of gender, race, and sexuality, are pitted against one another, obscuring the class antagonism that unites them against the owners of production.

Post-2024 election losses, Democrats have openly blamed their support for trans rights, with figures like Reps. Seth Moulton and Tom Suozzi arguing the party went “too far left,” splintering over issues like sports bans and DEI, and retreating from defending trans people in order to avoid offending moderates. This “reshuffling” cedes ground to the far right, prioritizing the hunt for votes over solidarity, and failing to achieve either. Kamala Harris, the candidate who, as an Attorney General in California, pursued transphobic interpretations of criminal justice, and who downplayed the importance of protecting transgender rights in the 2024 election cycle, did not go “too far left” but abandoned the laboring and popular masses of America who have long struggled for change and progress.

At its core, these phenomena reflect the material base of capitalism shaping its ideological superstructure. Christian nationalism, with its patriarchal and nationalist trappings, functions as a tool to maintain social cohesion amid economic decay. By scapegoating transgender individuals, it channels working-class frustrations—born of wage stagnation, housing crises, and job insecurity—away from the capitalist culprits and toward marginalized groups. Initiative 108’s focus on human trafficking penalties, for instance, appears noble but serves as a smokescreen, ignoring how capitalism’s global supply chains and austerity policies fuel trafficking networks. True protection for children and women demands dismantling the profit motive that breeds exploitation, not performative bans that reinforce bourgeois morality.

The path forward lies in recognizing these contradictions and building solidarity among the oppressed. Workers, regardless of gender, sex, or sexual orientation, must unite to expose how such campaigns perpetuate ruling-class dominance, divide us via chauvinistic and sensationalist spectacles, and inspire nothing but dismay and demoralization amongst the organized working class. Only through collective action—striking at the heart of private property and imperial control—can we forge a society where rights are not commodities but universal realities. In Colorado and beyond, the fight against these initiatives is about much more than transgender inclusion: it’s a front in the broader war against capitalist hypocrisy.

cross-posted from: https://hexbear.net/post/8536777

https://x.com/travessao_arte/status/1423376712839073792

transcription: i dont know how to flirt but i can make things awkward if your into that

Brian Morrissey, the department’s general counsel, stepped down hours after the Trump administration announced the $1.8 billion fund.

Probably because the Constitution says:

neither the United States nor any State shall assume or pay any debt or obligation incurred in aid of insurrection or rebellion against the United States, or any claim for the loss or emancipation of any slave; but all such debts, obligations and claims shall be held illegal and void.

"Okay, I'll come back then"